Impact of Caspian Sea-Level Changes on the Ecological and Geomorphological Condition of the Lankaran–Astara Coastal Zone

Abstract

The Caspian Sea has entered a sustained phase of water -level decline, driven mainly by an increasingly negative hydroclimatic balance and modified river inflow. This article evaluates the likely ecological and geomorphological consequences for the Lankar an-Astara coastal zone of south-eastern Azerbaijan. The coast combines low-gradient alluvial surfaces, river mouths, wetlands, sandy sectors, settlements and transport infrastructure; consequently, a basin-wide fall in water level does not produce one uniform shoreline response. General regression may expose new land and shift wetlands seaward, but local erosion, waterlogging, salinisation, temporary re-inundation and deformation-related changes may occur simultaneously. The study synthesises published research and recent local observations and proposes an integrated monitoring framework based on comparable satellite imagery, DSAS shoreline statistics, InSAR/GNSS, environmental data and field verification. Newly exposed surfaces should therefore be treated as provisional rather than automatically stable land.